Železničar Pančevo 2–1 Jedinstvo Ub: Result & Stats

Železničar Pančevo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Jedinstvo Ub

L. Petrović 58'

M. Mirosavljev 10' (pen)

K. Kwaku 60'

11/20/2022

Prva Liga · Round 19Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Železničar Pančevo51%

×Draw26%

Jedinstvo Ub24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Železničar PančevoExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Ub

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.97

Železničar Pančevo

1.54

Jedinstvo Ub

0.97

Železničar Pančevo creates 59% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 55 away

1.73

creates per match

1.05

0.89

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Železničar Pančevo

1.73

Jedinstvo Ub

1.05

allows per match

Železničar Pančevo

0.89

Jedinstvo Ub

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Železničar Pančevo ↓

Jedinstvo Ub →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Železničar Pančevo or draw

76%

Železničar Pančevo or Jedinstvo Ub

74%

Draw or Jedinstvo Ub

49%

Winning margin

Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+

26%

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals

79%

Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals

45%

Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals

20%

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals

62%

Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals

25%

Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)

68%

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Železničar Pančevo at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.89 · 55 matches

Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.73 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.05 + Železničar Pančevo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Železničar Pančevo scores more

51%

level

26%

Jedinstvo Ub scores more

24%

Železničar Pančevo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Železničar Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

M. MirosavljevPenalty

58'

L. Petrović

60'

K. Kwaku

62'

N. Lainović← M. Zuvic

62'

M. Tomić← D. Grgić

77'

U. Stevančević← F. Avrić

82'

G. Brkić← A. Kovačević

88'

L. Janković← A. Đorđević

88'

V. Živojinović← K. Kwaku

Železničar

Jedinstvo

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: T. Sivić

62'▲N. Lainović←▼M. Zuvic

62'▲M. Tomić←▼D. Grgić

82'▲G. Brkić←▼A. Kovačević

88'▲L. Janković←▼A. Đorđević

Železničar Pančevo substitutes

LainovićTomićBrkićJanković

Manager: M. Obradović

77'▲U. Stevančević←▼F. Avrić

88'▲V. Živojinović←▼K. Kwaku

Jedinstvo Ub substitutes

StevančevićŽivojinović

Match Recap: Železničar Pančevo vs Jedinstvo Ub

Železničar Pančevo beat Jedinstvo Ub 2-1 in Prva Liga on November 20, 2022.

Goals: M. Mirosavljev (10' pen), L. Petrović (58'), K. Kwaku (60').

The match was played at Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost in Pančevo.

Železničar Pančevo vs Jedinstvo Ub — Prva Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Železničar Pančevo vs Jedinstvo Ub