Jedinstvo Ub 0–1 Železničar Pančevo: Result & Stats

Jedinstvo Ub

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Železničar Pančevo

B. Knežević 37'

8/11/2024

Super Liga · Round 4Stadion Dragan Dzajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jedinstvo Ub35%

×Draw27%

Železničar Pančevo38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo UbExpected goals in this matchŽelezničar Pančevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.31

Jedinstvo Ub

1.25

Železničar Pančevo

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 57 away

1.00

creates per match

1.12

1.50

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Jedinstvo Ub

1.00

Železničar Pančevo

1.12

allows per match

Jedinstvo Ub

1.50

Železničar Pančevo

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Ub ↓

Železničar Pančevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Ub or draw

62%

Jedinstvo Ub or Železničar Pančevo

73%

Draw or Železničar Pančevo

65%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+

15%

Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals

71%

Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals

36%

Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals

13%

Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals

73%

Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals

38%

Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)

48%

Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Železničar Pančevo away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.51 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.00 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.12 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jedinstvo Ub scores more

35%

level

27%

Železničar Pančevo scores more

38%

Železničar Pančevo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Železničar Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

N. Milunović

Železničar Pančevo · D

7.5

Match Events

36'

Danilo Miladinović

37'

B. Knežević↳ N. Milunović

40'

Ognjen Dimitrić

42'

Bojan Balaž

43'

Stefan Golubović

46'

T. Pérez← J. Kristoffersen

46'

I. Kargbo← I. Milanović

57'

Edrissa Ceesay

62'

A. Popović← L. Radivojević

62'

A. Yusif← B. Balaž

69'

M. Mitrović← D. Grgić

70'

S. Denić← V. Damjanić

70'

M. Mitrović← D. Miladinović

73'

S. Cvetković← F. Ezeh

74'

U. Stojanović← N. Milunović

74'

J. Milosavljević← M. Ćurić

90+2'

Pablo Ferreira

90+4'

Stefan Cvetković

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JedinstvoŽelezničar

Overview

56%Possession44%

6Total Shots10

2Corners3

22Fouls27

Shots

6Total Shots10

0On Target4

4Off Target5

2Blocked1

2Inside Box3

4Outside Box7

Passing

56%Possession44%

380Total Passes301

286Accurate Passes221

75%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

22Fouls27

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3

Super Liga: Jedinstvo Ub 0–1 Železničar Pančevo

Železničar Pančevo beat Jedinstvo Ub 1-0 in Super Liga on August 11, 2024.

Goals: B. Knežević (37').

Jedinstvo Ub controlled possession (56%) and registered 6 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Dzajić in Ub.

Jedinstvo Ub vs Železničar Pančevo — Super Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Super Liga: Jedinstvo Ub 0–1 Železničar Pančevo