Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC — Super League 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Yverdon Sport37%
Servette FC36%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 6 home / 31 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Yverdon Sport ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Yverdon Sport at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches
Servette FC away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.81 · 31 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Yverdon Sport attack 0.83 + Servette FC defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.32
Servette FC attack 1.77 + Yverdon Sport defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.30
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Yverdon Sport at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Yverdon Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Servette FC substitutes
Head to Head
FC Thun
FC ST. Gallen
FC Lugano
FC Basel 1893
FC Sion
BSC Young Boys
FC LuzernServette FC
Lausanne
FC Zurich
Grasshoppers
FC WinterthurIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Yverdon Sport host Servette FC on Sunday, 11 February 2024 at 15:30. The match is part of the Super League 2025/2026 season.
Super League: Yverdon Sport 2–1 Servette FC
Yverdon Sport beat Servette FC 2-1 in Super League on February 11, 2024.
Goals: A. Antunes (20'), Kevin Carlos (29'), A. Sauthier (56').
Yverdon Sport controlled possession (58%) and registered 8 shots to 9.
The match was played at Stade Municipal in Yverdon-les-Bains.