Servette FC 2–3 Yverdon Sport: Result & Stats

Servette FC

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Yverdon Sport

A. Baron 64'

E. Crivelli 28'

M. Łęgowski 52'

M. Baradji 39'

A. Marchesano 26' (pen)

3/15/2025

Super League · Round 28Stade de Genève

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Servette FC53%

×Draw21%

Yverdon Sport26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Servette FCExpected goals in this matchYverdon Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.46

Servette FC

2.13

Yverdon Sport

1.46

Servette FC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 5 away

1.87

creates per match

1.40

1.52

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Servette FC

1.87

Yverdon Sport

1.40

allows per match

Servette FC

1.52

Yverdon Sport

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Servette FC+0.00on par

Yverdon Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette FC ↓

Yverdon Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Servette FC or draw

74%

Servette FC or Yverdon Sport

79%

Draw or Yverdon Sport

47%

Winning margin

Servette FC wins by 2+

31%

Yverdon Sport wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Servette FC 1+ goals

88%

Servette FC 2+ goals

63%

Servette FC 3+ goals

35%

Yverdon Sport 1+ goals

77%

Yverdon Sport 2+ goals

43%

Yverdon Sport 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Servette FC (draw refunded)

67%

Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Yverdon Sport away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette FC attack 1.87 + Yverdon Sport defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.13

Yverdon Sport attack 1.40 + Servette FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Servette FC scores more

53%

level

21%

Yverdon Sport scores more

26%

Servette FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Servette FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Marchesano

Yverdon Sport · F

8.2

Match Events

26'

A. MarchesanoPenalty

28'

E. Crivelli↳ B. Mazikou

39'

M. Baradji↳ A. Marchesano

52'

M. Łęgowski↳ A. Marchesano

59'

A. Ndoye← T. Ouattara

60'

A. Baron← E. Crivelli

63'

Mateusz Łęgowski

64'

A. Baron

70'

Mauro Rodrigues← F. Sylla

71'

H. Komano← V. Tasar

73'

V. Beniangba← D. Kutesa

76'

Mohamed Tijani

81'

B. Céspedes← A. Marchesano

87'

Keyan Varela← T. Magnin

90+6'

Kasim Adams

90+3'

Steve Rouiller

90'

C. Piccini← M. Aké

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ServetteYverdon

Overview

62%Possession38%

13Total Shots16

0.94Expected Goals (xG)1.57

8Corners4

10Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots16

6On Target6

3Off Target3

4Blocked7

9Inside Box6

4Outside Box10

Passing

62%Possession38%

532Total Passes329

430Accurate Passes232

81%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1