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Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport — Super League 2025

Servette FC
Servette FC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Yverdon Sport
Yverdon Sport
M. Stevanović 46'
A. Sauthier 22' (OG)
D. Kutesa 12'
W. Le Pogam 63'
B. Céspedes 34' (pen)
7/28/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Stade de Genève

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Servette FC53%
×Draw21%
Yverdon Sport26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Servette FC
2.13
Yverdon Sport
1.46

Servette FC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 5 away

creates per match

Servette FC
1.87
Yverdon Sport
1.40

allows per match

Servette FC
1.52
Yverdon Sport
2.40

finishing

Servette FC+0.00on par
Yverdon Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Servette FC ↓

Yverdon Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Servette FC or draw
74%
Servette FC or Yverdon Sport
79%
Draw or Yverdon Sport
47%

Winning margin

Servette FC wins by 2+
31%
Yverdon Sport wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Servette FC 1+ goals
88%
Servette FC 2+ goals
63%
Servette FC 3+ goals
35%
Yverdon Sport 1+ goals
77%
Yverdon Sport 2+ goals
43%
Yverdon Sport 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Servette FC (draw refunded)
67%
Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Servette FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Yverdon Sport away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Servette FC attack 1.87 + Yverdon Sport defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.13

Yverdon Sport attack 1.40 + Servette FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Servette FC scores more
53%
level
21%
Yverdon Sport scores more
26%

Servette FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Servette FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
T. CognatServette FCServette FC · M
7.7

Match Events

12'
D. Kutesa↳ J. Guillemenot
22'
A. SauthierOwn goal
34'
B. CéspedesPenalty
36'
T. Magnin← B. Mazikou
45+1'
Steve Rouiller
46'
A. Baron← J. Guillemenot
46'
M. Stevanović↳ T. Cognat
57'
J. Gnakpa← A. Sauthier
57'
J. Hautier← H. Loucif
57'
F. Sylla← A. Mahious
62'
D. Douline← A. Antunes
62'
J. von Moos← D. Kutesa
63'
W. Le Pogam↳ Mauro Rodrigues
65'
Mauro Rodrigues
74'
E. Crivelli← T. Cognat
80'
Julian Von Moos
83'
S. Kone← Mauro Rodrigues
87'
Christian Marques
89'
Samba Koné
90+2'
V. Vidaković← H. Komano

Possession

47%Servette

Shots

10Servette

Pass accuracy

46%Servette

Statistics

ServetteYverdon
Overview
47%Possession53%
10Total Shots12
3Corners4
11Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots12
6On Target5
2Off Target5
2Blocked2
7Inside Box6
3Outside Box6
Passing
47%Possession53%
367Total Passes415
269Accurate Passes347
73%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Super League: Servette FC 3–2 Yverdon Sport

Servette FC beat Yverdon Sport 3-2 in Super League on July 28, 2024.

Goals: D. Kutesa (12'), A. Sauthier (22' o.g.), B. Céspedes (34' pen), M. Stevanović (46'), W. Le Pogam (63').

Yverdon Sport controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade de Genève in Lancy.