Yverdon Sport 0–3 Lausanne: Result & Stats

Yverdon Sport

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Lausanne

K. Sène 66'

F. Diabaté 57'

A. Bernede 51'

10/29/2024

Super League · Round 12Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Yverdon Sport42%

×Draw28%

Lausanne30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yverdon SportExpected goals in this matchLausanne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.03

Yverdon Sport

1.29

Lausanne

1.03

Yverdon Sport creates 25% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 21 away

0.83

creates per match

1.24

0.83

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Yverdon Sport

0.83

Lausanne

1.24

allows per match

Yverdon Sport

0.83

Lausanne

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yverdon Sport+0.00on par

Lausanne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yverdon Sport ↓

Lausanne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Yverdon Sport or draw

70%

Yverdon Sport or Lausanne

72%

Draw or Lausanne

58%

Winning margin

Yverdon Sport wins by 2+

19%

Lausanne wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Yverdon Sport 1+ goals

72%

Yverdon Sport 2+ goals

37%

Yverdon Sport 3+ goals

14%

Lausanne 1+ goals

64%

Lausanne 2+ goals

28%

Lausanne 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)

59%

Lausanne (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yverdon Sport at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Lausanne away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yverdon Sport attack 0.83 + Lausanne defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.29

Lausanne attack 1.24 + Yverdon Sport defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Yverdon Sport scores more

42%

level

28%

Lausanne scores more

30%

Yverdon Sport at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Yverdon Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

80

A. Sanches

Lausanne · F

8.6

Match Events

46'

F. Sylla← D. Lembikisa

46'

D. Kacuri← M. Łęgowski

51'

A. Bernede

57'

F. Diabaté↳ K. Sène

64'

Abdou Karim Sow

64'

J. Gnakpa← B. Céspedes

64'

M. Ntelo← Mauro Rodrigues

66'

K. Sène↳ K. de la Fuente

72'

T. Okou← K. de la Fuente

72'

K. Koindredi← A. Bernede

74'

74'

79'

79'

87'

87'

D. Ngonzo← N. Dussenne

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

YverdonLausanne

Overview

42%Possession58%

9Total Shots23

0.92Expected Goals (xG)1.85

1Corners19

13Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots23

1On Target10

6Off Target5

2Blocked8

6Inside Box14

3Outside Box9

Passing

42%Possession58%

367Total Passes489

295Accurate Passes423

80%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3