Lausanne 4–1 Yverdon Sport: Result & Stats

Lausanne

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Yverdon Sport

A. Sanches 72', 32'

M. Baradji 36' (OG)

A. Ajdini 27'

Ronaldo Tavares 45'

2/8/2025

Super League · Round 23Stade de la Tuilière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lausanne52%

×Draw21%

Yverdon Sport27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LausanneExpected goals in this matchYverdon Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.53

Lausanne

2.15

Yverdon Sport

1.53

Lausanne creates 41% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

1.90

creates per match

1.40

1.67

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Lausanne

1.90

Yverdon Sport

1.40

allows per match

Lausanne

1.67

Yverdon Sport

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lausanne+0.00on par

Yverdon Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne ↓

Yverdon Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Lausanne or draw

73%

Lausanne or Yverdon Sport

79%

Draw or Yverdon Sport

48%

Winning margin

Lausanne wins by 2+

31%

Yverdon Sport wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lausanne 1+ goals

88%

Lausanne 2+ goals

63%

Lausanne 3+ goals

36%

Yverdon Sport 1+ goals

78%

Yverdon Sport 2+ goals

45%

Yverdon Sport 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Lausanne (draw refunded)

65%

Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

Yverdon Sport away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne attack 1.90 + Yverdon Sport defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.15

Yverdon Sport attack 1.40 + Lausanne defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lausanne scores more

52%

level

21%

Yverdon Sport scores more

27%

Lausanne at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

80

A. Sanches

Lausanne · M

10.0

Match Events

16'

Moussa Baradji

27'

A. Ajdini↳ A. Sanches

32'

A. Sanches↳ T. Okou

36'

M. BaradjiOwn goal

45'

Ronaldo Tavares↳ M. Baradji

66'

66'

67'

72'

74'

79'

F. Sylla← A. Marchesano

79'

A. Sauthier← J. Gnakpa

82'

K. de la Fuente← T. Okou

82'

F. Oviedo← A. Sanches

87'

M. Senaya← R. Giger

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LausanneYverdon

Overview

59%Possession41%

14Total Shots9

2.12Expected Goals (xG)0.87

5Corners6

9Fouls21

Shots

14Total Shots9

6On Target6

7Off Target1

1Blocked2

11Inside Box4

3Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

444Total Passes315

356Accurate Passes211

80%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls21

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2