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Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport — Super League 2025

Lausanne
Lausanne
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Yverdon Sport
Yverdon Sport
A. Sanches 56', 2'
T. Okou 20'
M. Aké 77' (pen)
9/22/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Stade de la Tuilière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lausanne52%
×Draw21%
Yverdon Sport27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lausanne
2.15
Yverdon Sport
1.53

Lausanne creates 41% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

creates per match

Lausanne
1.90
Yverdon Sport
1.40

allows per match

Lausanne
1.67
Yverdon Sport
2.40

finishing

Lausanne+0.00on par
Yverdon Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne ↓

Yverdon Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Lausanne or draw
73%
Lausanne or Yverdon Sport
79%
Draw or Yverdon Sport
48%

Winning margin

Lausanne wins by 2+
31%
Yverdon Sport wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lausanne 1+ goals
88%
Lausanne 2+ goals
63%
Lausanne 3+ goals
36%
Yverdon Sport 1+ goals
78%
Yverdon Sport 2+ goals
45%
Yverdon Sport 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lausanne (draw refunded)
65%
Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

Yverdon Sport away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne attack 1.90 + Yverdon Sport defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.15

Yverdon Sport attack 1.40 + Lausanne defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lausanne scores more
52%
level
21%
Yverdon Sport scores more
27%

Lausanne at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

80
A. SanchesLausanneLausanne · F
9.6

Match Events

2'
A. Sanches↳ A. Ajdini
12'
Mateusz Łęgowski
20'
T. Okou↳ J. Roche
33'
D. Kacuri← D. Lembikisa
33'
M. Baradji← M. Łęgowski
42'
Jamie Roche
45+1'
Teddy Okou
46'
M. Ntelo← J. Gnakpa
46'
H. Komano← F. González
56'
A. Sanches↳ T. Okou
58'
Abdou Karim Sow
67'
Christian Marques
75'
M. Polster← M. Poaty
75'
K. de la Fuente← F. Diabaté
77'
M. AkéPenalty
81'
A. Sauthier← N. Gunnarsson
82'
K. Koindredi← Diogo Carraco
87'
K. Sène← A. Ajdini

Possession

50%Lausanne

Shots

20Lausanne

Pass accuracy

49%Lausanne

Statistics

LausanneYverdon
Overview
50%Possession50%
20Total Shots11
3.10Expected Goals (xG)1.33
4Corners2
20Fouls12
Shots
20Total Shots11
6On Target4
11Off Target6
3Blocked1
15Inside Box5
5Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
362Total Passes363
257Accurate Passes269
71%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
20Fouls12
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides7

Super League: Lausanne 3–1 Yverdon Sport

Lausanne beat Yverdon Sport 3-1 in Super League on September 22, 2024.

Goals: A. Sanches (2', 56'), T. Okou (20'), M. Aké (77' pen).

Lausanne controlled possession (50%) and registered 20 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade de la Tuilière in Lausanne.