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Wydad AC vs Kaizer Chiefs — CAF Champions League 2019

Wydad AC
Wydad AC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefsadvanced
S. Nurkovic 34'
6/19/2021CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Semi-finalsStade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Wydad AC65%
×Draw23%
Kaizer Chiefs12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
1.72
Kaizer Chiefs
0.57

Wydad AC creates 202% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 7 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
2.14
Kaizer Chiefs
0.71

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.43
Kaizer Chiefs
1.29

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Kaizer Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
88%
Wydad AC or Kaizer Chiefs
77%
Draw or Kaizer Chiefs
35%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
38%
Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
82%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
51%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
25%
Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
43%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
11%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
85%
Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

Kaizer Chiefs away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 2.14 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.72

Kaizer Chiefs attack 0.71 + Wydad AC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Wydad AC scores more
65%
level
23%
Kaizer Chiefs scores more
12%

Wydad AC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
B. BvumaKaizer ChiefsKaizer Chiefs · G
9.2

Match Events

34'
Samir NurkovićGoal cancelled
34'
S. Nurkovic↳ N. Blom
52'
Yagan Sasman
61'
P. Zulu← Y. Sasman
68'
S. Msuva← Muaid Ellafi
70'
Reeve Frosler
73'
K. Baccus← N. Blom
80'
T. Akumu← L. Castro
90'
S. Saidi← A. Hassouni

Possession

79%Wydad

Shots

28Wydad

Pass accuracy

61%Wydad

Statistics

WydadKaizer
Overview
79%Possession21%
28Total Shots3
16Corners1
6Fouls24
Shots
28Total Shots3
8On Target1
14Off Target2
6Blocked0
12Inside Box2
16Outside Box1
Passing
79%Possession21%
670Total Passes183
577Accurate Passes103
86%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
0Saves8
Discipline
6Fouls24
0Yellow Cards2
4Offsides3

Match Recap: Wydad AC vs Kaizer Chiefs

Kaizer Chiefs beat Wydad AC 1-0 in CAF Champions League on June 19, 2021.

Goals: S. Nurkovic (34').

Wydad AC controlled possession (79%) and registered 28 shots to 3.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.