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Kaizer Chiefs vs Wydad AC — CAF Champions League 2019

Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
6/26/2021CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Semi-finalsFirst National Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kaizer Chiefs42%
×Draw36%
Wydad AC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaizer Chiefs
0.93
Wydad AC
0.60

Kaizer Chiefs creates 55% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 29 away

creates per match

Kaizer Chiefs
0.88
Wydad AC
0.83

allows per match

Kaizer Chiefs
0.38
Wydad AC
0.97

finishing

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaizer Chiefs ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs or draw
77%
Kaizer Chiefs or Wydad AC
64%
Draw or Wydad AC
58%

Winning margin

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
15%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
61%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
24%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
7%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
45%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
12%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
65%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaizer Chiefs at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaizer Chiefs attack 0.88 + Wydad AC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Wydad AC attack 0.83 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kaizer Chiefs scores more
42%
level
36%
Wydad AC scores more
23%

Kaizer Chiefs at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
D. AkpeyiKaizer ChiefsKaizer Chiefs · G
8.6

Match Events

45'
Aymane El Hassouni
45'
Yahya Jabrane
46'
Muaid Ellafi← S. Msuva
49'
Amine Farhane
51'
Reeve Frosler
70'
A. Skouma← A. Hassouni
78'
R. Mphahlele← Y. Sasman
80'
Daniel Akpeyi
85'
K. Baccus← R. Frosler
90+2'
Z. El-Moutaraji← M. Ounajem

Possession

30%Kaizer

Shots

6Kaizer

Pass accuracy

43%Kaizer

Statistics

KaizerWydad
Overview
30%Possession70%
6Total Shots18
5Corners9
9Fouls7
Shots
6Total Shots18
2On Target7
3Off Target9
1Blocked2
5Inside Box12
1Outside Box6
Passing
30%Possession70%
257Total Passes593
153Accurate Passes480
60%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls7
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

CAF Champions League: Kaizer Chiefs 0–0 Wydad AC

Kaizer Chiefs and Wydad AC drew 0-0 in CAF Champions League on June 26, 2021.

Wydad AC controlled possession (70%) and registered 18 shots to 6.

The match was played at First National Bank Stadium in Johannesburg.