Kaizer Chiefs 1–0 Wydad AC: Result & Stats

Kaizer Chiefs

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wydad AC

B. Parker 48'

4/3/2021

CAF Champions League · Group C - 5First National Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kaizer Chiefs42%

×Draw36%

Wydad AC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kaizer ChiefsExpected goals in this matchWydad AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

0.60

Kaizer Chiefs

0.93

Wydad AC

0.60

Kaizer Chiefs creates 55% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 29 away

0.88

creates per match

0.83

0.38

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Kaizer Chiefs

0.88

Wydad AC

0.83

allows per match

Kaizer Chiefs

0.38

Wydad AC

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under80
Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaizer Chiefs ↓

Wydad AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–022%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

78%22%1.5

45%55%2.5

20%80%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs or draw

77%

Kaizer Chiefs or Wydad AC

64%

Draw or Wydad AC

58%

Winning margin

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+

15%

Wydad AC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals

61%

Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals

24%

Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals

7%

Wydad AC 1+ goals

45%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

12%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)

65%

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaizer Chiefs at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaizer Chiefs attack 0.88 + Wydad AC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Wydad AC attack 0.83 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kaizer Chiefs scores more

42%

level

36%

Wydad AC scores more

23%

Kaizer Chiefs at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

R. Frosler

Kaizer Chiefs · D

7.7

Match Events

13'

13'

40'

44'

46'

H. Asrir← M. Babatunde

47'

Happy Mashiane

48'

B. Parker

52'

M. Chrachem← B. Aouk

67'

R. Mphahlele← H. Mashiane

84'

Bilal← H. Ait Allal

87'

W. Katsande← N. Ngcobo

89'

Samir Nurković

89'

Samir Nurković

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KaizerWydad

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots9

4Corners9

14Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots9

3On Target1

4Off Target6

2Blocked2

4Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

312Total Passes281

246Accurate Passes195

79%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls7

3Yellow Cards1

2Red Cards0

2Offsides3