Wydad AC 4–0 Kaizer Chiefs: Result & Stats

Wydad AC

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kaizer Chiefs

Y. Jabrane 90+2' (pen)

S. Msuva 86'

A. El Kaabi 44'

M. Ounajem 7'

2/28/2021

CAF Champions League · Group C - 1Stade du 4 Août

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Wydad AC65%

×Draw23%

Kaizer Chiefs12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wydad ACExpected goals in this matchKaizer Chiefs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.57

Wydad AC

1.72

Kaizer Chiefs

0.57

Wydad AC creates 202% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 7 away

2.14

creates per match

0.71

0.43

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Wydad AC

2.14

Kaizer Chiefs

0.71

allows per match

Wydad AC

0.43

Kaizer Chiefs

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Kaizer Chiefs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw

88%

Wydad AC or Kaizer Chiefs

77%

Draw or Kaizer Chiefs

35%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+

38%

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals

82%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

51%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

25%

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals

43%

Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals

11%

Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

85%

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

Kaizer Chiefs away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 2.14 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.72

Kaizer Chiefs attack 0.71 + Wydad AC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Wydad AC scores more

65%

level

23%

Kaizer Chiefs scores more

12%

Wydad AC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

M. Ounajem

Wydad AC · M

8.2

Match Events

7'

M. Ounajem↳ Muaid Ellafi

13'

Ramahlwe Mphahlele

24'

Yahia Attiyat Allah

44'

A. El Kaabi↳ M. Ounajem

63'

Reeve Frosler

65'

N. Ngcobo← W. Katsande

65'

P. Zulu← L. Manyama

68'

S. Msuva← S. Saidi

68'

A. Hassouni← M. Ounajem

77'

Itumeleng Khune

77'

L. Kambole← K. Baccus

78'

C. Comara← A. Dari

79'

Z. El-Moutaraji← Muaid Ellafi

86'

S. Msuva↳ W. El Karti

88'

M. Rahim← Y. Attiyat allah

90'

Ramahlwe Mphahlele

90'

Ramahlwe Mphahlele

90+2'

Y. JabranePenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WydadKaizer

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots8

3Corners6

19Fouls27

Shots

10Total Shots8

8On Target3

1Off Target3

1Blocked2

7Inside Box5

3Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

288Total Passes312

186Accurate Passes225

65%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls27

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

3Offsides5