Wycombe 0–2 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Wycombe

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Peterborough

C. Hayes 68'

K. Lisbie 37'

1/24/2026

League One · Round 28Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Wycombe52%

×Draw23%

Peterborough26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.27

Wycombe

1.89

Peterborough

1.27

Wycombe creates 49% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.98

creates per match

1.21

1.34

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Wycombe

1.98

Peterborough

1.21

allows per match

Wycombe

1.34

Peterborough

1.79

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Wycombe-0.18scores less

Peterborough-0.03on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

74%

Wycombe or Peterborough

77%

Draw or Peterborough

48%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

29%

Peterborough wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

85%

Wycombe 2+ goals

56%

Wycombe 3+ goals

29%

Peterborough 1+ goals

72%

Peterborough 2+ goals

36%

Peterborough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

67%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.34 · 5 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.98 + Peterborough defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.89

Peterborough attack 1.21 + Wycombe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Wycombe scores more

52%

level

23%

Peterborough scores more

26%

Wycombe at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

C. Hayes

Peterborough · M

8.3

Match Events

37'

K. Lisbie↳ A. Collins

46'

A. Quitirna← T. Allen

54'

C. Hayes← J. Morgan

54'

D. O'Brien-Brady← M. Garbett

68'

C. Hayes↳ K. Lisbie

72'

J. Mullins← C. Woodrow

73'

D. Frith← K. Lisbie

80'

James Dornelly

82'

O. Aderoju← H. Leonard

82'

P. Sykut← B. Khela

87'

C. Stones← L. Leahy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombePeterborough

Overview

57%Possession43%

14Total Shots7

2.39Expected Goals (xG)2.02

6Corners3

10Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots7

4On Target4

8Off Target3

2Blocked1

11Inside Box6

3Outside Box1

Passing

57%Possession43%

501Total Passes389

384Accurate Passes288

77%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides5