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Peterborough vs Wycombe — League One 2025

Peterborough
Peterborough
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wycombe
Wycombe
M. Mothersille 16' (pen)
R. Kone 90+3'
3/8/2025League OneLeague One · Round 36Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Peterborough49%
×Draw24%
Wycombe27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peterborough
1.69
Wycombe
1.20

Peterborough creates 41% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 28 away

creates per match

Peterborough
1.87
Wycombe
1.07

allows per match

Peterborough
1.33
Wycombe
1.50

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par
Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Wycombe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw
73%
Peterborough or Wycombe
76%
Draw or Wycombe
51%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+
26%
Wycombe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals
82%
Peterborough 2+ goals
50%
Peterborough 3+ goals
24%
Wycombe 1+ goals
70%
Wycombe 2+ goals
34%
Wycombe 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)
64%
Wycombe (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.87 + Wycombe defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

Wycombe attack 1.07 + Peterborough defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Peterborough scores more
49%
level
24%
Wycombe scores more
27%

Peterborough at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
R. KoneWycombeWycombe · F
7.9

Match Events

16'
M. MothersillePenalty
30'
Bradley Ihionvien
60'
R. Jones← B. Ihionvien
74'
K. Poku← C. Hayes
74'
B. Lubala← G. McCleary
74'
F. Onyedinma← A. Reach
81'
C. Johnston← J. Dornelly
81'
T. Bakinson← J. Grimmer
81'
J. Berry-McNally← J. Scowen
82'
Mahamadou Susoho← A. Collins
90+3'
R. Kone

Possession

51%Peterborough

Shots

9Peterborough

Pass accuracy

52%Peterborough

Statistics

PeterboroughWycombe
Overview
51%Possession49%
9Total Shots13
3Corners2
10Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots13
3On Target2
3Off Target6
3Blocked5
8Inside Box7
1Outside Box6
Passing
51%Possession49%
388Total Passes379
288Accurate Passes262
74%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls12
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Peterborough vs Wycombe

Peterborough and Wycombe drew 1-1 in League One on March 8, 2025.

Goals: M. Mothersille (16' pen), R. Kone (90+3').

Peterborough controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.