Peterborough 2–1 Wycombe: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Wycombe

J. Morgan 41'

M. Garbett 21'

F. Onyedinma 49'

9/13/2025

League One · Round 8Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Peterborough44%

×Draw25%

Wycombe31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.25

Peterborough

1.56

Wycombe

1.25

Peterborough creates 25% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 28 away

1.63

creates per match

1.07

1.43

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Peterborough

1.63

Wycombe

1.07

allows per match

Peterborough

1.43

Wycombe

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

69%

Peterborough or Wycombe

75%

Draw or Wycombe

56%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

22%

Wycombe wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

79%

Peterborough 2+ goals

46%

Peterborough 3+ goals

21%

Wycombe 1+ goals

71%

Wycombe 2+ goals

36%

Wycombe 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

59%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.63 + Wycombe defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Wycombe attack 1.07 + Peterborough defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Peterborough scores more

44%

level

25%

Wycombe scores more

31%

Peterborough at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Bass

Peterborough · G

7.9

Match Events

21'

M. Garbett↳ A. Collins

41'

J. Morgan

46'

E. Henderson← N. Huggins

49'

F. Onyedinma↳ S. Bell

53'

Brandon Khela

60'

C. Hayes← J. Mendy

61'

G. Lindgren← J. Morgan

67'

D. Okagbue← T. Lees

67'

C. Boyd-Munce← G. Abbott

67'

J. Tilley← F. Onyedinma

69'

Daniel Harvie

76'

B. Fink← C. Woodrow

76'

M. Westergaard← L. Leahy

84'

George Nevett

86'

K. Lisbie← H. Leonard

90'

Cian Hayes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughWycombe

Overview

46%Possession54%

16Total Shots12

3Corners4

12Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots12

6On Target5

6Off Target2

4Blocked5

11Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

381Total Passes455

316Accurate Passes371

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2

League One: Peterborough 2–1 Wycombe

Peterborough beat Wycombe 2-1 in League One on September 13, 2025.

Goals: M. Garbett (21'), J. Morgan (41'), F. Onyedinma (49').

Wycombe controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 16.

The match was played at Weston Homes Stadium in Peterborough.

Peterborough vs Wycombe — League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Peterborough 2–1 Wycombe