Wycombe 3–1 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Wycombe

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Peterborough

R. Kone 72' (pen), 67', 63'

R. Jones 50'

10/19/2024

League One · Round 12Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Wycombe53%

×Draw22%

Peterborough25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.29

Wycombe

1.96

Peterborough

1.29

Wycombe creates 52% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.98

creates per match

1.24

1.34

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Wycombe

1.98

Peterborough

1.24

allows per match

Wycombe

1.34

Peterborough

1.94

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Wycombe-0.18scores less

Peterborough-0.07on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

75%

Wycombe or Peterborough

78%

Draw or Peterborough

47%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

31%

Peterborough wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

86%

Wycombe 2+ goals

58%

Wycombe 3+ goals

31%

Peterborough 1+ goals

72%

Peterborough 2+ goals

37%

Peterborough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

68%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.34 · 5 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.94 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.98 + Peterborough defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.96

Peterborough attack 1.24 + Wycombe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wycombe scores more

53%

level

22%

Peterborough scores more

25%

Wycombe at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

R. Kone

Wycombe · F

9.5

Match Events

32'

Donay O'Brien-Brady

39'

Emmanuel Fernandez

46'

R. De Havilland← D. OBrien-Brady

50'

R. Jones↳ K. Poku

53'

Archie Collins

61'

R. Kone← F. Onyedinma

62'

L. Leahy← C. Humphreys

63'

67'

71'

71'

72'

R. KonePenalty

73'

G. Nevett← M. Mothersille

73'

S. Curtis← J. Dornelly

81'

T. Bakinson← J. Scowen

81'

G. Kodua← G. McCleary

82'

A. Odoh← O. Wallin

82'

C. Hayes← K. Poku

89'

Aaron Morley

89'

Joel Randall

90+1'

M. Butcher← A. Morley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombePeterborough

Overview

48%Possession52%

18Total Shots10

4Corners1

10Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots10

8On Target3

6Off Target4

4Blocked3

14Inside Box8

4Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

418Total Passes450

345Accurate Passes377

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

5Offsides3

League One: Wycombe 3–1 Peterborough

Wycombe beat Peterborough 3-1 in League One on October 19, 2024.

Goals: R. Jones (50'), R. Kone (63', 67', 72' pen).

Peterborough controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 18.

The match was played at Adams Park in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.

Wycombe vs Peterborough — League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Wycombe 3–1 Peterborough