Wycombe 3–3 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Wycombe

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Peterborough

A. Akinfenwa 90+5' (pen), 56'

C. Pym 63' (OG)

I. Toney 70'

J. Knight 38'

M. Eisa 10'

10/5/2019

League One · Round 12Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Wycombe55%

×Draw22%

Peterborough23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.18

Wycombe

1.93

Peterborough

1.18

Wycombe creates 64% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.94

creates per match

1.24

1.11

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Wycombe

1.94

Peterborough

1.24

allows per match

Wycombe

1.11

Peterborough

1.92

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Wycombe-0.02on par

Peterborough-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

77%

Wycombe or Peterborough

78%

Draw or Peterborough

45%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

32%

Peterborough wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

85%

Wycombe 2+ goals

57%

Wycombe 3+ goals

30%

Peterborough 1+ goals

69%

Peterborough 2+ goals

33%

Peterborough 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

70%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.11 · 13 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.92 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.94 + Peterborough defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.93

Peterborough attack 1.24 + Wycombe defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Wycombe scores more

55%

level

22%

Peterborough scores more

23%

Wycombe at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

A. Akinfenwa

Wycombe · F

7.9

Match Events

4'

Curtis Thompson

10'

M. Eisa↳ F. Blake-Tracy

25'

Marcus Maddison

38'

J. Knight

43'

R. Aarons← F. Onyedinma

56'

A. Akinfenwa↳ D. Gape

60'

S. Tasdemir← M. Maddison

63'

C. PymOwn goal

66'

Frazer Blake-Tracy

70'

I. Toney

73'

S. Kashket← D. Wheeler

80'

A. Woodyard← J. Knight

83'

Curtis Thompson

83'

Curtis Thompson

90'

Ivan Toney

90+1'

D. Butler← F. Blake-Tracy

90+5'

A. AkinfenwaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombePeterborough

Overview

40%Possession60%

18Total Shots20

3Corners6

11Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots20

7On Target9

9Off Target5

2Blocked6

10Inside Box12

8Outside Box8

Passing

40%Possession60%

304Total Passes444

219Accurate Passes338

72%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides5

League One: Wycombe 3–3 Peterborough

Wycombe and Peterborough drew 3-3 in League One on October 5, 2019.

Goals: M. Eisa (10'), J. Knight (38'), A. Akinfenwa (56', 90+5' pen), C. Pym (63' o.g.), I. Toney (70').

Peterborough controlled possession (60%) and registered 20 shots to 18.

The match was played at Adams Park in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.

Wycombe vs Peterborough — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Wycombe 3–3 Peterborough