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Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu — Super League 2020

Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns
Preview
12:00
Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu
7/18/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Wuhan Sports Centre
Big match
59%
Wuhan Three Towns
model favours
59%21%20%

Wuhan Three Towns score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns59%
×Draw21%
Sichuan Jiuniu20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Three Towns
2.08
Sichuan Jiuniu
1.13

Wuhan Three Towns creates 84% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns
2.02
Sichuan Jiuniu
1.04

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns
1.22
Sichuan Jiuniu
2.13

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns+0.18scores more
Sichuan Jiuniu-0.61scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Sichuan Jiuniu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw
80%
Wuhan Three Towns or Sichuan Jiuniu
79%
Draw or Sichuan Jiuniu
41%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+
36%
Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals
87%
Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals
61%
Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals
34%
Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals
68%
Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals
31%
Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)
75%
Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.22 · 5 matches

Sichuan Jiuniu away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.13 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 2.02 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.08

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.04 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more
59%
level
21%
Sichuan Jiuniu scores more
20%

Wuhan Three Towns at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sichuan Jiuniu score first in only 20% of matches
  • Both teams score in 80% of Wuhan Three Towns’s matches
  • 70% of Wuhan Three Towns’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (70% and 60% over 2.5)
  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings
  • Their last 7 meetings averaged 3.9 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Wuhan Three Towns
Balanced
Sichuan Jiuniu
Direct / counter-attacking
47%Possession44%
82%Pass accuracy75%
12.5Shots11.8
1.55xGBiggest gap1.19
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Wuhan Three TownsSichuan Jiuniu

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

4
Wuhan Three Towns
1
Draws
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
Avg goals: 3.9BTTS: 86%
2–51–22–14–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Towns
LLDDD
Jiuniu
WLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wuhan Three Towns face Sichuan Jiuniu (Super League)

Super League returns with Wuhan Three Towns hosting Sichuan Jiuniu. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Wuhan Three Towns host Sichuan Jiuniu at Wuhan Sports Centre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.