Sichuan Jiuniu 1–1 Wuhan Three Towns

Sichuan Jiuniu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wuhan Three Towns

Matt Orr 90'

Liu Yue 57'

4/14/2024

Super League · Round 6Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu43%

×Draw24%

Wuhan Three Towns34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sichuan JiuniuExpected goals in this matchWuhan Three Towns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.46

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.67

Wuhan Three Towns

1.46

Sichuan Jiuniu creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.30

creates per match

1.29

1.62

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.30

Wuhan Three Towns

1.29

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.62

Wuhan Three Towns

2.04

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.27scores more

Wuhan Three Towns-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw

66%

Sichuan Jiuniu or Wuhan Three Towns

76%

Draw or Wuhan Three Towns

57%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+

22%

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals

81%

Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals

50%

Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals

23%

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

77%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

43%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)

56%

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.62 · 7 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.30 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.67

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.29 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more

43%

level

24%

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

34%

Sichuan Jiuniu at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

Liu Dianzuo

Wuhan Three Towns · G

7.9

Match Events

46'

Luo Senwen← He Chao

57'

Liu Yue↳ Jiang Zhipeng

61'

Chen Yuhao← Zhang Tao

63'

Ruan Yang← Nan Song

69'

Zhang Wei← Nizamdin Ependi

73'

Liu Yiming← Pedro Henrique

77'

Yiming Liu

81'

Tian Yinong← Zhu Baojie

81'

Matt Orr← Yu Rui

81'

Denny Wang Yi← Darlan

82'

Hanwen Deng

82'

Yusup Umidjan← Liu Yue

90+12'

90+5'

90+4'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SichuanWuhan

Overview

59%Possession41%

7Total Shots9

1.15Expected Goals (xG)1.03

4Corners1

8Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots9

6On Target4

1Off Target4

0Blocked1

5Inside Box8

2Outside Box1

Passing

59%Possession41%

550Total Passes383

460Accurate Passes307

84%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1