Wuhan Three Towns 4–1 Sichuan Jiuniu

Wuhan Three Towns

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Sichuan Jiuniu

Darlan 76'

Pedro Henrique 45+3'

Joca 44', 5'

Dai Wai-Tsun 50'

8/3/2024

Super League · Round 21Wuhan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns59%

×Draw21%

Sichuan Jiuniu20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan Three TownsExpected goals in this matchSichuan Jiuniu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.13

Wuhan Three Towns

2.08

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.13

Wuhan Three Towns creates 84% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

2.02

creates per match

1.04

1.22

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns

2.02

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.04

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.22

Sichuan Jiuniu

2.13

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.61scores less than expected

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns+0.18scores more

Sichuan Jiuniu-0.61scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Sichuan Jiuniu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw

80%

Wuhan Three Towns or Sichuan Jiuniu

79%

Draw or Sichuan Jiuniu

41%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

36%

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

87%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

61%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

34%

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals

68%

Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals

31%

Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

75%

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.22 · 5 matches

Sichuan Jiuniu away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.13 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 2.02 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.08

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.04 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

59%

level

21%

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more

20%

Wuhan Three Towns at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Joca

Wuhan Three Towns · M

9.3

Match Events

5'

Joca↳ Tao Qianglong

21'

Zhu Baojie← Edu García

44'

Joca↳ Liu Dianzuo

45'

Yinong Tian

45+3'

Pedro Henrique↳ Joca

46'

Nizamdin Ependi← Tian Yinong

46'

Ruan Yang← Zhang Wei

50'

Dai Wai-Tsun

64'

Zhang Tao← Deng Hanwen

64'

Liu Yue← Tao Qianglong

68'

Matt Orr← Li Zhi

74'

Li Zhizhao← Peng Peng

76'

Darlan↳ Joca

80'

Ablahan Haliq← Joca

81'

Liu Ruofan← Romário Baldé

87'

Zhang Hui← Darlan

90+7'

Yue Liu

90+4'

Tiago Leonço

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WuhanSichuan

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots17

1.57Expected Goals (xG)1.25

6Corners7

9Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots17

8On Target4

3Off Target3

0Blocked10

10Inside Box11

1Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

310Total Passes459

251Accurate Passes402

81%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1