Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns — Super League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 8+ matches
Sichuan Jiuniu43%
Wuhan Three Towns33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sichuan Jiuniu creates 16% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over62
- Under38
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes63
- No37
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sichuan Jiuniu ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.66 · 8 matches
Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.37 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.71
Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.29 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.48
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Sichuan Jiuniu at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
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Shandong Luneng
Beijing Guoan
Jiangsu Suning
Hebei Zhongji
Shanghai Shenhua
Beijing Renhe
Tianjin Songjiang
Guangzhou R&F
Dalian Aerbin
Henan Jianye
Chongqing Lifan
Tianjin Teda
Changchun Yatai
Guizhou ZhichengIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Sichuan Jiuniu host Wuhan Three Towns on Wednesday, 18 June 2025 at 12:00. The match is part of the Super League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns beat Sichuan Jiuniu 2-1 in Super League on June 18, 2025.
Goals: Tiago Leonco (50'), A. Tudorie (63' pen), M. Palacios (75').
Sichuan Jiuniu controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 12.
The match was played at Longquanyi Stadium in Shenzhen.