Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu — Super League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 6+ matches
Wuhan Three Towns57%
Sichuan Jiuniu21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Wuhan Three Towns creates 74% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over61
- Under39
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Wuhan Three Towns ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.12 · 6 matches
Sichuan Jiuniu away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.93 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Wuhan Three Towns attack 2.12 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.02
Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.20 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Wuhan Three Towns at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
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Hebei Zhongji
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Guangzhou R&F
Dalian Aerbin
Henan Jianye
Chongqing Lifan
Tianjin Teda
Changchun Yatai
Guizhou ZhichengIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Wuhan Three Towns host Sichuan Jiuniu on Friday, 24 October 2025 at 11:35. The match is part of the Super League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Wuhan Three Towns 2-1 in Super League on October 24, 2025.
Goals: E. Garcia (41'), R. Dugalic (58'), Yu Rui (82' o.g.).
Wuhan Three Towns controlled possession (64%) and registered 9 shots to 9.
The match was played at Wuhan Sports Centre in Wuhan.