WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau

WSG Wattens

CANC

12:30

Austria Lustenau

10/10/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Gernot Langes Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

WSG Wattens41%

×Draw22%

Austria Lustenau37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WSG WattensExpected goals in this matchAustria Lustenau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.69

WSG Wattens

1.80

Austria Lustenau

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.17

creates per match

1.79

1.58

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

WSG Wattens

1.17

Austria Lustenau

1.79

allows per match

WSG Wattens

1.58

Austria Lustenau

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

WSG Wattens+0.00on par

Austria Lustenau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WSG Wattens ↓

Austria Lustenau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

WSG Wattens or draw

63%

WSG Wattens or Austria Lustenau

78%

Draw or Austria Lustenau

59%

Winning margin

WSG Wattens wins by 2+

22%

Austria Lustenau wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

WSG Wattens 1+ goals

83%

WSG Wattens 2+ goals

54%

WSG Wattens 3+ goals

27%

Austria Lustenau 1+ goals

82%

Austria Lustenau 2+ goals

50%

Austria Lustenau 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

WSG Wattens (draw refunded)

53%

Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WSG Wattens at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Austria Lustenau away — creates 1.79, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WSG Wattens attack 1.17 + Austria Lustenau defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.80

Austria Lustenau attack 1.79 + WSG Wattens defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

WSG Wattens scores more

41%

level

22%

Austria Lustenau scores more

37%

WSG Wattens at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "WSG Wattens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff