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Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens — Bundesliga 2018

Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
WSG Wattens
WSG Wattens
3/30/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Relegation Round - 2ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Austria Lustenau39%
×Draw24%
WSG Wattens37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Lustenau
1.62
WSG Wattens
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 113 away

creates per match

Austria Lustenau
1.30
WSG Wattens
1.20

allows per match

Austria Lustenau
1.94
WSG Wattens
1.94

finishing

Austria Lustenau+0.00on par
WSG Wattens+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Lustenau ↓

WSG Wattens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Austria Lustenau or draw
63%
Austria Lustenau or WSG Wattens
76%
Draw or WSG Wattens
61%

Winning margin

Austria Lustenau wins by 2+
20%
WSG Wattens wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Austria Lustenau 1+ goals
80%
Austria Lustenau 2+ goals
48%
Austria Lustenau 3+ goals
22%
WSG Wattens 1+ goals
79%
WSG Wattens 2+ goals
46%
WSG Wattens 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)
51%
WSG Wattens (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Lustenau at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

WSG Wattens away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.94 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Lustenau attack 1.30 + WSG Wattens defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.62

WSG Wattens attack 1.20 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Austria Lustenau scores more
39%
level
24%
WSG Wattens scores more
37%

Austria Lustenau at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Austria Lustenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Austria Lustenau 1–2 WSG Wattens

WSG Wattens beat Austria Lustenau 2-1 in Bundesliga on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz in Bregenz.