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WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau — Bundesliga 2018

WSG Wattens
WSG Wattens
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
4/27/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Relegation Round - 7Tivoli Stadion Tirol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

WSG Wattens42%
×Draw26%
Austria Lustenau32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WSG Wattens
1.47
Austria Lustenau
1.25

WSG Wattens creates 18% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 33 away

creates per match

WSG Wattens
1.30
Austria Lustenau
0.91

allows per match

WSG Wattens
1.58
Austria Lustenau
1.64

finishing

WSG Wattens+0.00on par
Austria Lustenau+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WSG Wattens ↓

Austria Lustenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

WSG Wattens or draw
68%
WSG Wattens or Austria Lustenau
74%
Draw or Austria Lustenau
58%

Winning margin

WSG Wattens wins by 2+
20%
Austria Lustenau wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

WSG Wattens 1+ goals
77%
WSG Wattens 2+ goals
43%
WSG Wattens 3+ goals
18%
Austria Lustenau 1+ goals
71%
Austria Lustenau 2+ goals
36%
Austria Lustenau 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

WSG Wattens (draw refunded)
57%
Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WSG Wattens at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

Austria Lustenau away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WSG Wattens attack 1.30 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.47

Austria Lustenau attack 0.91 + WSG Wattens defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

WSG Wattens scores more
42%
level
26%
Austria Lustenau scores more
32%

WSG Wattens at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "WSG Wattens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: WSG Wattens 0–0 Austria Lustenau

WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau drew 0-0 in Bundesliga on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Innsbruck.