Wolfsberger AC 3–0 Admira Wacker: Result & Stats

Wolfsberger AC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Admira Wacker

8/21/2021

Bundesliga · Round 5Lavanttal Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wolfsberger AC47%

×Draw24%

Admira Wacker29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wolfsberger ACExpected goals in this matchAdmira Wacker

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.30

Wolfsberger AC

1.71

Admira Wacker

1.30

Wolfsberger AC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 64 away

1.58

creates per match

1.09

1.51

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC

1.58

Admira Wacker

1.09

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC

1.51

Admira Wacker

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par

Admira Wacker+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC ↓

Admira Wacker →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC or draw

71%

Wolfsberger AC or Admira Wacker

76%

Draw or Admira Wacker

53%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+

25%

Admira Wacker wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals

82%

Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals

51%

Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals

24%

Admira Wacker 1+ goals

73%

Admira Wacker 2+ goals

37%

Admira Wacker 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)

62%

Admira Wacker (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.51 · 130 matches

Admira Wacker away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.58 + Admira Wacker defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.71

Admira Wacker attack 1.09 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wolfsberger AC scores more

47%

level

24%

Admira Wacker scores more

29%

Wolfsberger AC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff