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Admira Wacker vs Wolfsberger AC — Bundesliga 2018

Admira Wacker
Admira Wacker
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wolfsberger AC
Wolfsberger AC
M. Liendl 82' (pen)
11/27/2021BundesligaBundesliga · Round 16BSFZ-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Admira Wacker29%
×Draw24%
Wolfsberger AC47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira Wacker
1.23
Wolfsberger AC
1.63

Wolfsberger AC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 130 away

creates per match

Admira Wacker
1.00
Wolfsberger AC
1.59

allows per match

Admira Wacker
1.66
Wolfsberger AC
1.45

finishing

Admira Wacker+0.00on par
Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Wacker ↓

Wolfsberger AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Admira Wacker or draw
53%
Admira Wacker or Wolfsberger AC
76%
Draw or Wolfsberger AC
71%

Winning margin

Admira Wacker wins by 2+
12%
Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Admira Wacker 1+ goals
71%
Admira Wacker 2+ goals
35%
Admira Wacker 3+ goals
13%
Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals
80%
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
48%
Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Admira Wacker (draw refunded)
38%
Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Wacker at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.66 · 64 matches

Wolfsberger AC away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Wacker attack 1.00 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.59 + Admira Wacker defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Admira Wacker scores more
29%
level
24%
Wolfsberger AC scores more
47%

Wolfsberger AC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. LiendlWolfsberger ACWolfsberger AC · M
8.3

Match Events

49'
Niko Datković
50'
Josef Ganda
63'
D. Vizinger← C. Dieng
64'
W. Vorsager← L. Kronberger
69'
P. Schmiedl← S. Zwierschitz
76'
C. Wernitznig← E. Peretz
82'
M. LiendlPenalty
86'
L. Lukačević← M. Ostrzolek
86'
Patrick← T. Ebner
90+2'
Wilhelm Vorsager
90+8'
Philipp Schmiedl
90+8'
Philipp SchmiedlCard upgrade
90'
K. Stratznig← M. Liendl

Possession

40%Admira

Shots

7Admira

Pass accuracy

47%Admira

Statistics

AdmiraWolfsberger
Overview
40%Possession60%
7Total Shots17
1Corners7
21Fouls11
Shots
7Total Shots17
1On Target5
4Off Target8
2Blocked4
2Inside Box11
5Outside Box6
Passing
40%Possession60%
344Total Passes513
237Accurate Passes394
69%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
21Fouls11
3Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Admira Wacker vs Wolfsberger AC

Wolfsberger AC beat Admira Wacker 1-0 in Bundesliga on November 27, 2021.

Goals: M. Liendl (82' pen).

Wolfsberger AC controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at BSFZ-Arena in Maria Enzersdorf.