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Wolfsberger AC vs Admira Wacker — Bundesliga 2018

Wolfsberger AC
Wolfsberger AC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Admira Wacker
Admira Wacker
D. Joveljić 76'
G. Henriksson 17'
A. Wooten 3'
2/13/2021BundesligaBundesliga · Round 17Lavanttal Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wolfsberger AC47%
×Draw24%
Admira Wacker29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsberger AC
1.71
Admira Wacker
1.30

Wolfsberger AC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 64 away

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.58
Admira Wacker
1.09

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.51
Admira Wacker
1.83

finishing

Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par
Admira Wacker+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC ↓

Admira Wacker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC or draw
71%
Wolfsberger AC or Admira Wacker
76%
Draw or Admira Wacker
53%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+
25%
Admira Wacker wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals
82%
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
51%
Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals
24%
Admira Wacker 1+ goals
73%
Admira Wacker 2+ goals
37%
Admira Wacker 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)
62%
Admira Wacker (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.51 · 130 matches

Admira Wacker away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.58 + Admira Wacker defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.71

Admira Wacker attack 1.09 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wolfsberger AC scores more
47%
level
24%
Admira Wacker scores more
29%

Wolfsberger AC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
S. SpranglerWolfsberger ACWolfsberger AC · M
8.0

Match Events

3'
A. Wooten↳ R. Kerschbaum
17'
G. Henriksson↳ S. Sprangler
40'
Dejan Joveljić
45'
Matthäus Taferner
52'
Thorsten Röcher
61'
L. Kronberger← D. Starkl
63'
C. Dieng← T. Röcher
69'
M. Liendl← D. Vizinger
76'
D. Joveljić↳ C. Dieng
82'
M. Breunig← E. Aiwu
83'
K. Stratznig← M. Taferner
90'
Roman Kerschbaum

Possession

53%Wolfsberger

Shots

11Wolfsberger

Pass accuracy

52%Wolfsberger

Statistics

WolfsbergerAdmira
Overview
53%Possession47%
11Total Shots7
8Corners4
13Fouls17
Shots
11Total Shots7
5On Target4
5Off Target3
1Blocked0
7Inside Box6
4Outside Box1
Passing
53%Possession47%
421Total Passes379
293Accurate Passes242
70%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls17
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Wolfsberger AC vs Admira Wacker

Wolfsberger AC beat Admira Wacker 2-1 in Bundesliga on February 13, 2021.

Goals: A. Wooten (3'), G. Henriksson (17'), D. Joveljić (76').

Wolfsberger AC controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Lavanttal Arena in Wolfsberg.