Admira Wacker 1–0 Wolfsberger AC: Result & Stats

Admira Wacker

FT

1 – 0

Wolfsberger AC

1/18/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Landesportzentrum VIVA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Admira Wacker26%

×Draw23%

Wolfsberger AC51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Admira WackerExpected goals in this matchWolfsberger AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.84

Admira Wacker

1.24

Wolfsberger AC

1.84

Wolfsberger AC creates 48% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

1.63

creates per match

2.00

1.69

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Admira Wacker

1.63

Wolfsberger AC

2.00

allows per match

Admira Wacker

1.69

Wolfsberger AC

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Admira Wacker+0.00on par

Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Wacker ↓

Wolfsberger AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Admira Wacker or draw

49%

Admira Wacker or Wolfsberger AC

77%

Draw or Wolfsberger AC

74%

Winning margin

Admira Wacker wins by 2+

11%

Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Admira Wacker 1+ goals

71%

Admira Wacker 2+ goals

35%

Admira Wacker 3+ goals

13%

Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals

84%

Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals

55%

Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Admira Wacker (draw refunded)

33%

Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Wacker at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Wolfsberger AC away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Wacker attack 1.63 + Wolfsberger AC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.24

Wolfsberger AC attack 2.00 + Admira Wacker defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Admira Wacker scores more

26%

level

23%

Wolfsberger AC scores more

51%

Wolfsberger AC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff