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Wigry Suwałki vs Bytovia Bytów — II Liga - East 2019

Wigry Suwałki
Wigry Suwałki
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
4/17/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 28Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Wigry Suwałki54%
×Draw23%
Bytovia Bytów22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigry Suwałki
1.77
Bytovia Bytów
1.05

Wigry Suwałki creates 69% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 35 away

creates per match

Wigry Suwałki
1.67
Bytovia Bytów
1.17

allows per match

Wigry Suwałki
0.94
Bytovia Bytów
1.86

finishing

Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par
Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigry Suwałki ↓

Bytovia Bytów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Wigry Suwałki or draw
78%
Wigry Suwałki or Bytovia Bytów
77%
Draw or Bytovia Bytów
46%

Winning margin

Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+
30%
Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals
83%
Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals
53%
Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals
26%
Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
65%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
28%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)
71%
Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigry Suwałki at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 36 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigry Suwałki attack 1.67 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.17 + Wigry Suwałki defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wigry Suwałki scores more
54%
level
23%
Bytovia Bytów scores more
22%

Wigry Suwałki at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wigry Suwałki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Wigry Suwałki 4–1 Bytovia Bytów

Wigry Suwałki beat Bytovia Bytów 4-1 in II Liga - East on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Suwałki.