Bytovia Bytów 1–1 Wigry Suwałki: Result & Stats

Bytovia Bytów

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wigry Suwałki

9/22/2018

I Liga · Round 11Stadion MOSiR (Bytów)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bytovia Bytów48%

×Draw26%

Wigry Suwałki25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bytovia BytówExpected goals in this matchWigry Suwałki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.98

Bytovia Bytów

1.47

Wigry Suwałki

0.98

Bytovia Bytów creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

1.18

creates per match

0.79

1.18

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów

1.18

Wigry Suwałki

0.79

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów

1.18

Wigry Suwałki

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Wigry Suwałki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw

75%

Bytovia Bytów or Wigry Suwałki

74%

Draw or Wigry Suwałki

52%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

24%

Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

77%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

43%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

18%

Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals

62%

Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals

26%

Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

66%

Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Wigry Suwałki away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.18 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.47

Wigry Suwałki attack 0.79 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more

48%

level

26%

Wigry Suwałki scores more

25%

Bytovia Bytów at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff