Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wigry Suwałki vs Bytovia Bytów — I Liga 2018

Wigry Suwałki
Wigry Suwałki
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
4/13/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 28Stadion Miejski (Suwałki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wigry Suwałki37%
×Draw24%
Bytovia Bytów39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigry Suwałki
1.47
Bytovia Bytów
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Wigry Suwałki
1.18
Bytovia Bytów
1.47

allows per match

Wigry Suwałki
1.56
Bytovia Bytów
1.76

finishing

Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par
Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigry Suwałki ↓

Bytovia Bytów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wigry Suwałki or draw
61%
Wigry Suwałki or Bytovia Bytów
76%
Draw or Bytovia Bytów
63%

Winning margin

Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+
17%
Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals
77%
Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals
43%
Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals
18%
Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
78%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
45%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)
49%
Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigry Suwałki at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigry Suwałki attack 1.18 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.47

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.47 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wigry Suwałki scores more
37%
level
24%
Bytovia Bytów scores more
39%

Bytovia Bytów at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Wigry Suwałki 4–2 Bytovia Bytów

Wigry Suwałki beat Bytovia Bytów 4-2 in I Liga on April 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski (Suwałki).