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Bytovia Bytów vs Wigry Suwałki — II Liga - East 2019

Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wigry Suwałki
Wigry Suwałki
10/18/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 9Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bytovia Bytów39%
×Draw25%
Wigry Suwałki36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bytovia Bytów
1.42
Wigry Suwałki
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 34 away

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.57
Wigry Suwałki
1.35

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.37
Wigry Suwałki
1.26

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par
Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Wigry Suwałki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw
64%
Bytovia Bytów or Wigry Suwałki
75%
Draw or Wigry Suwałki
61%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
18%
Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
76%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
41%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
17%
Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals
74%
Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals
39%
Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
52%
Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Wigry Suwałki away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.57 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.42

Wigry Suwałki attack 1.35 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more
39%
level
25%
Wigry Suwałki scores more
36%

Bytovia Bytów at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Bytovia Bytów 1–2 Wigry Suwałki

Wigry Suwałki beat Bytovia Bytów 2-1 in II Liga - East on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Bytów.