Wigan 0–3 Birmingham: Result & Stats | League One

Wigan

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Birmingham

W. Willumsson 61'

A. May 30', 18'

1/4/2025

League One · Round 25The Brick Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wigan29%

×Draw28%

Birmingham43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.33

Wigan

1.04

Birmingham

1.33

Birmingham creates 28% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 23 away

1.21

creates per match

1.61

1.05

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Wigan

1.21

Birmingham

1.61

allows per match

Wigan

1.05

Birmingham

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par

Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

57%

Wigan or Birmingham

72%

Draw or Birmingham

71%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

11%

Birmingham wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

65%

Wigan 2+ goals

28%

Wigan 3+ goals

9%

Birmingham 1+ goals

74%

Birmingham 2+ goals

38%

Birmingham 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

40%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 117 matches

Birmingham away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.21 + Birmingham defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.04

Birmingham attack 1.61 + Wigan defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wigan scores more

29%

level

28%

Birmingham scores more

43%

Birmingham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. May

Birmingham · F

8.5

Match Events

12'

Tomoki Iwata

18'

A. May

30'

A. May↳ E. Laird

42'

Toby Sibbick

44'

Luke Harris

59'

M. Leonard← L. Harris

61'

W. Willumsson↳ E. Laird

67'

L. Robinson← S. Sessegnon

67'

J. Hungbo← M. Olakigbe

72'

L. Dykes← A. May

73'

77'

79'

80'

80'

C. McManaman← J. Smith

90+1'

Ethan Laird

90+5'

A. Yokoyama← W. Willumsson

90+5'

L. Jutkiewicz← T. Gardner-Hickman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WiganBirmingham

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots7

4Corners2

12Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots7

4On Target5

4Off Target1

7Blocked1

5Inside Box5

10Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

420Total Passes525

338Accurate Passes422

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1