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Wigan vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Birmingham
Birmingham
A. Fletcher 59'
J. Bacuna 4'
3/4/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 35DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wigan43%
×Draw27%
Birmingham30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.33
Birmingham
1.06

Wigan creates 25% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 168 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.16
Birmingham
0.97

allows per match

Wigan
1.16
Birmingham
1.51

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par
Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
70%
Wigan or Birmingham
73%
Draw or Birmingham
57%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
20%
Birmingham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
74%
Wigan 2+ goals
38%
Wigan 3+ goals
15%
Birmingham 1+ goals
65%
Birmingham 2+ goals
29%
Birmingham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
59%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.51 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.16 + Birmingham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

Birmingham attack 0.97 + Wigan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wigan scores more
43%
level
27%
Birmingham scores more
30%

Wigan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
J. BacunaBirminghamBirmingham · F
7.9

Match Events

4'
J. Bacuna
13'
Danel Sinani
30'
Juninho Bacuna
43'
Alfie Chang
46'
W. Keane← C. Tiéhi
58'
T. Pearce← O. Rekik
59'
A. Fletcher↳ J. McClean
66'
James McClean
69'
H. Mejbri← T. Chong
73'
R. Khadra← S. Hogan
85'
J. Magennis← D. Sinani
89'
M. Roberts← J. Graham

Possession

72%Wigan

Shots

7Wigan

Pass accuracy

56%Wigan

Statistics

WiganBirmingham
Overview
72%Possession28%
7Total Shots13
2Corners1
13Fouls14
Shots
7Total Shots13
3On Target2
4Off Target7
0Blocked4
3Inside Box7
4Outside Box6
Passing
72%Possession28%
615Total Passes234
516Accurate Passes152
84%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Championship: Wigan 1–1 Birmingham

Wigan and Birmingham drew 1-1 in Championship on March 4, 2023.

Goals: J. Bacuna (4'), A. Fletcher (59').

Wigan controlled possession (72%) and registered 7 shots to 13.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.