Birmingham 2–1 Wigan: Result & Stats | League One

Birmingham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wigan

S. Wright 90+1'

A. May 18'

T. Aasgaard 66'

8/31/2024

League One · Round 4St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Birmingham56%

×Draw24%

Wigan20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchWigan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.90

Birmingham

1.69

Wigan

0.90

Birmingham creates 88% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 117 away

2.04

creates per match

1.32

0.48

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Birmingham

2.04

Wigan

1.32

allows per match

Birmingham

0.48

Wigan

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par

Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Wigan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

80%

Birmingham or Wigan

76%

Draw or Wigan

44%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

31%

Wigan wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

82%

Birmingham 2+ goals

50%

Birmingham 3+ goals

24%

Wigan 1+ goals

59%

Wigan 2+ goals

23%

Wigan 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

74%

Wigan (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.48 · 23 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.33 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 2.04 + Wigan defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.69

Wigan attack 1.32 + Birmingham defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Birmingham scores more

56%

level

24%

Wigan scores more

20%

Birmingham at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

C. Klarer

Birmingham · D

8.2

Match Events

18'

A. May↳ W. Willumsson

46'

S. Sessegnon← J. Carragher

51'

A. Sampsted← E. Laird

52'

S. Wright← L. Harris

60'

D. Taylor← J. Hugill

61'

M. Leonard← T. Gardner-Hickman

61'

J. Weir← B. Adeeko

66'

T. Aasgaard↳ M. Smith

69'

Sam Tickle

70'

C. McManaman← D. Rankine

70'

S. Smith← M. Smith

73'

L. Dykes← A. May

74'

A. Yokoyama← E. Hansson

82'

Jason Kerr

90+3'

Callum McManaman

90+1'

S. Wright↳ C. Klarer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamWigan

Overview

66%Possession34%

16Total Shots11

7Corners3

8Fouls22

Shots

16Total Shots11

8On Target5

4Off Target3

4Blocked3

8Inside Box8

8Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

663Total Passes334

572Accurate Passes246

86%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls22

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0