Birmingham 0–1 Wigan: Result & Stats | Championship

Birmingham

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wigan

N. Broadhead 82'

8/20/2022

Championship · Round 5St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Birmingham43%

×Draw26%

Wigan30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchWigan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.13

Birmingham

1.41

Wigan

1.13

Birmingham creates 25% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 63 away

1.25

creates per match

0.97

1.29

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Birmingham

1.25

Wigan

0.97

allows per match

Birmingham

1.29

Wigan

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par

Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Wigan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

70%

Birmingham or Wigan

74%

Draw or Wigan

57%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

21%

Wigan wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

76%

Birmingham 2+ goals

41%

Birmingham 3+ goals

17%

Wigan 1+ goals

68%

Wigan 2+ goals

31%

Wigan 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

59%

Wigan (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 175 matches

Wigan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.25 + Wigan defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Wigan attack 0.97 + Birmingham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Birmingham scores more

43%

level

26%

Wigan scores more

30%

Birmingham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Kerr

Wigan · D

7.6

Match Events

10'

Joe Bennett

17'

R. Nyambe← J. Magennis

57'

T. Deeney← L. Jutkiewicz

57'

J. Leko← J. Williams

66'

Will Keane

69'

G. Shinnie← J. McClean

70'

C. Wyke← W. Keane

70'

N. Broadhead← C. Lang

71'

Tom Naylor

80'

S. Cosgrove← G. Hall

82'

N. Broadhead↳ C. Wyke

86'

J. Bellingham← M. Colin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamWigan

Overview

57%Possession43%

11Total Shots6

7Corners3

11Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots6

2On Target3

7Off Target2

2Blocked1

7Inside Box3

4Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

335Total Passes271

260Accurate Passes182

78%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls7

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1