Widzew Łódź 1–0 Nieciecza: Result & Stats

Widzew Łódź

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nieciecza

S. Bergier 89'

4/11/2026

Ekstraklasa · Round 28Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Widzew Łódź49%

×Draw24%

Nieciecza27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Widzew ŁódźExpected goals in this matchNieciecza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.21

Widzew Łódź

1.73

Nieciecza

1.21

Widzew Łódź creates 43% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

1.39

1.02

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Widzew Łódź

1.50

Nieciecza

1.39

allows per match

Widzew Łódź

1.02

Nieciecza

1.96

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Widzew Łódź+0.18scores more

Nieciecza-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widzew Łódź ↓

Nieciecza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Widzew Łódź or draw

73%

Widzew Łódź or Nieciecza

76%

Draw or Nieciecza

51%

Winning margin

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+

27%

Nieciecza wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals

82%

Widzew Łódź 2+ goals

52%

Widzew Łódź 3+ goals

25%

Nieciecza 1+ goals

70%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

34%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)

65%

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widzew Łódź at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.02 · 19 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.96 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widzew Łódź attack 1.50 + Nieciecza defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.73

Nieciecza attack 1.39 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Widzew Łódź scores more

49%

level

24%

Nieciecza scores more

27%

Widzew Łódź at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Chovan

Nieciecza · G

8.7

Match Events

29'

Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz

33'

Artem Putivtsev

58'

A. Trubeha← I. Strzalek

63'

A. Baena Perez← L. Selahi

68'

Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz

68'

Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz

72'

K. Kubica← J. Jimenez

81'

Fran Álvarez

82'

A. Zeqiri← C. Isaac

85'

M. Fassbender← R. Boboc

85'

I. Durdov← K. Zapolnik

85'

M. Matysik← S. Guerrero

86'

Przemysław Wiśniewski

89'

S. Bergier↳ M. Fornalczyk

90+6'

Andi Zeqiri

90+2'

M. Zyro← M. Fornalczyk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WidzewNieciecza

Overview

56%Possession44%

20Total Shots9

2.14Expected Goals (xG)0.72

10Corners1

14Fouls19

Shots

20Total Shots9

8On Target2

5Off Target4

7Blocked3

14Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

398Total Passes321

314Accurate Passes224

79%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

1.31Goals Prevented1.31

Discipline

14Fouls19

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2