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Nieciecza vs Widzew Łódź — Ekstraklasa 2026

Nieciecza
Nieciecza
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
S. Guerrero 82', 20'
F. Alvarez 67', 57', 54'
S. Bergier 29'
10/4/2025EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 11Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Nieciecza36%
×Draw25%
Widzew Łódź39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nieciecza
1.44
Widzew Łódź
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 28 away

creates per match

Nieciecza
1.37
Widzew Łódź
1.23

allows per match

Nieciecza
1.76
Widzew Łódź
1.51

finishing

Nieciecza+0.13scores more
Widzew Łódź+0.02on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Widzew Łódź →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw
61%
Nieciecza or Widzew Łódź
75%
Draw or Widzew Łódź
64%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+
17%
Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals
76%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
42%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
18%
Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
78%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
44%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)
48%
Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.76 · 8 matches

Widzew Łódź away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.51 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.37 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Widzew Łódź attack 1.23 + Nieciecza defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nieciecza scores more
36%
level
25%
Widzew Łódź scores more
39%

Widzew Łódź at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
F. AlvarezWidzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź · M
10.0

Match Events

14'
J. Shehu← M. Hanousek
20'
S. Guerrero
27'
Sebastian Bergier
29'
S. Bergier↳ P. Therkildsen
51'
I. Strzalek← A. Trubeha
52'
Samuel Akere
54'
F. Alvarez↳ S. Akere
57'
F. Alvarez↳ M. Fornalczyk
62'
A. Baena Perez← S. Akere
63'
A. Zeqiri← S. Bergier
65'
K. Kubica← R. Boboc
65'
W. Jakubik← M. Fassbender
67'
F. Alvarez
73'
Fran ÁlvarezGoal cancelled
79'
D. Deisadze← D. Hilbrycht
79'
A. Putivtsev← J. Jimenez
82'
S. Guerrero↳ W. Jakubik
86'
L. Selahi← S. Czyz
86'
P. M. Ba← M. Fornalczyk
90+1'
Artem Putivtsev

Possession

53%Nieciecza

Shots

9Nieciecza

Pass accuracy

50%Nieciecza

Statistics

NiecieczaWidzew
Overview
53%Possession47%
9Total Shots14
0.91Expected Goals (xG)1.88
3Corners4
15Fouls16
Shots
9Total Shots14
4On Target10
2Off Target2
3Blocked2
6Inside Box9
3Outside Box5
Passing
53%Possession47%
377Total Passes333
289Accurate Passes260
77%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls16
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Ekstraklasa: Nieciecza 2–4 Widzew Łódź

Widzew Łódź beat Nieciecza 4-2 in Ekstraklasa on October 4, 2025.

Goals: S. Guerrero (20', 82'), S. Bergier (29'), F. Alvarez (54', 57', 67').

Nieciecza controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza in Nieciecza.