Widzew Łódź 1–1 Nieciecza: Result & Stats | I Liga

Widzew Łódź

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nieciecza

M. Hanousek 11'

A. Radwański 58'

5/16/2021

I Liga · Round 30Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Widzew Łódź41%

×Draw26%

Nieciecza33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Widzew ŁódźExpected goals in this matchNieciecza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.23

Widzew Łódź

1.40

Nieciecza

1.23

Widzew Łódź creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 100 away

1.59

creates per match

1.50

0.97

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Widzew Łódź

1.59

Nieciecza

1.50

allows per match

Widzew Łódź

0.97

Nieciecza

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Widzew Łódź+0.00on par

Nieciecza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widzew Łódź ↓

Nieciecza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Widzew Łódź or draw

67%

Widzew Łódź or Nieciecza

74%

Draw or Nieciecza

59%

Winning margin

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+

19%

Nieciecza wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals

75%

Widzew Łódź 2+ goals

41%

Widzew Łódź 3+ goals

17%

Nieciecza 1+ goals

71%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

35%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)

55%

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widzew Łódź at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.97 · 34 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widzew Łódź attack 1.59 + Nieciecza defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.40

Nieciecza attack 1.50 + Widzew Łódź defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Widzew Łódź scores more

41%

level

26%

Nieciecza scores more

33%

Widzew Łódź at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

11'

11'

19'

46'

M. Grzybek← M. Wasielewski

46'

S. Štefánik← S. Bonecki

46'

58'

62'

67'

71'

P. Samiec-Talar← D. Kun

81'

Ł. Kosakiewicz← P. Stępiński

81'

Caique← P. Mucha

81'

82'

85'

90+2'

90'

Widzew

Nieciecza

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Dobi

71'▲P. Samiec-Talar←▼D. Kun

81'▲Ł. Kosakiewicz←▼P. Stępiński

81'▲Caique←▼P. Mucha

81'▲M. Robak←▼P.Tomczyk

90'▲K. Czubak←▼F. Becht

Widzew Łódź substitutes

Samiec-TalarKosakiewiczCaiqueRobakCzubak

Manager: M. Lewandowski

46'▲M. Grzybek←▼M. Wasielewski

46'▲S. Štefánik←▼S. Bonecki

46'▲M. Zeman←▼K. Śpiewak

Nieciecza substitutes

GrzybekŠtefánikZeman