Nieciecza 2–0 Widzew Łódź: Result & Stats | I Liga

Nieciecza

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Widzew Łódź

P. Mišák 89'

A. Radwański 9'

11/20/2020

I Liga · Round 13Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Nieciecza49%

×Draw26%

Widzew Łódź25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiecieczaExpected goals in this matchWidzew Łódź

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.96

Nieciecza

1.46

Widzew Łódź

0.96

Nieciecza creates 52% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 34 away

1.72

creates per match

0.85

1.06

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Nieciecza

1.72

Widzew Łódź

0.85

allows per match

Nieciecza

1.06

Widzew Łódź

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nieciecza+0.00on par

Widzew Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Widzew Łódź →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw

75%

Nieciecza or Widzew Łódź

74%

Draw or Widzew Łódź

51%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+

24%

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals

77%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

43%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

18%

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals

62%

Widzew Łódź 2+ goals

25%

Widzew Łódź 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

66%

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.06 · 96 matches

Widzew Łódź away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.72 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.46

Widzew Łódź attack 0.85 + Nieciecza defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nieciecza scores more

49%

level

26%

Widzew Łódź scores more

25%

Nieciecza at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. Radwański

42'

P. Zyra

46'

M. Zeman← K. Śpiewak

52'

M. Hubínek← A. Putivtsev

63'

D. Tanzyna

70'

M. Fundambu← P. Mucha

72'

P. Mišák← A. Radwański

77'

K. Czubak← R. Prochownik

83'

D. Kun← M. Michalski

89'

P. Mišák

90+1'

P. Czarnowski← R. Gergel

Nieciecza

Widzew

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Radwański

Żyra

▼

Śpiewak

Manager: M. Lewandowski

46'▲M. Zeman←▼K. Śpiewak

52'▲M. Hubínek←▼A. Putivtsev

72'▲P. Mišák←▼A. Radwański

90+1'▲P. Czarnowski←▼R. Gergel

Nieciecza substitutes

ZemanHubínekMišákCzarnowski

Manager: E. Dobi

70'▲M. Fundambu←▼P. Mucha

77'▲K. Czubak←▼R. Prochownik

83'▲D. Kun←▼M. Michalski

Widzew Łódź substitutes

FundambuCzubakKun