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Werder Bremen vs VfL Bochum — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
Preview
11:00
VfL Bochum
VfL Bochum
7/25/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
Big match
38%
Werder Bremen
model favours
38%25%37%

VfL Bochum are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Werder Bremen38%
×Draw25%
VfL Bochum37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Werder Bremen
1.46
VfL Bochum
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Werder Bremen
1.80
VfL Bochum
1.89

allows per match

Werder Bremen
1.00
VfL Bochum
1.11

finishing

Werder Bremen+0.00on par
VfL Bochum+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werder Bremen ↓

VfL Bochum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Werder Bremen or draw
63%
Werder Bremen or VfL Bochum
75%
Draw or VfL Bochum
62%

Winning margin

Werder Bremen wins by 2+
18%
VfL Bochum wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Werder Bremen 1+ goals
77%
Werder Bremen 2+ goals
43%
Werder Bremen 3+ goals
18%
VfL Bochum 1+ goals
76%
VfL Bochum 2+ goals
42%
VfL Bochum 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Werder Bremen (draw refunded)
51%
VfL Bochum (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werder Bremen at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

VfL Bochum away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werder Bremen attack 1.80 + VfL Bochum defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.46

VfL Bochum attack 1.89 + Werder Bremen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Werder Bremen scores more
38%
level
25%
VfL Bochum scores more
37%

Werder Bremen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Werder Bremen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • VfL Bochum score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in 82% of VfL Bochum’s matches
  • Werder Bremen score first in only 31% of matches
  • Werder Bremen have won 5 of the last 6 meetings
  • 43% of Werder Bremen’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bremen
WLLLD
Bochum
WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Werder Bremen face VfL Bochum (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Werder Bremen hosting VfL Bochum. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.