Vfl Bochum 1–1 Werder Bremen: Result & Stats

Vfl Bochum

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Werder Bremen

P. Osterhage 64'

N. Stark 90+3'

1/14/2024

Bundesliga · Round 17Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Vfl Bochum49%

×Draw25%

Werder Bremen26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vfl BochumExpected goals in this matchWerder Bremen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.09

Vfl Bochum

1.58

Werder Bremen

1.09

Vfl Bochum creates 45% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 34 away

1.34

creates per match

1.05

1.13

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Vfl Bochum

1.34

Werder Bremen

1.05

allows per match

Vfl Bochum

1.13

Werder Bremen

1.83

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Vfl Bochum-0.14scores less

Werder Bremen+0.07on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vfl Bochum ↓

Werder Bremen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vfl Bochum or draw

74%

Vfl Bochum or Werder Bremen

75%

Draw or Werder Bremen

51%

Winning margin

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+

25%

Werder Bremen wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals

79%

Vfl Bochum 2+ goals

47%

Vfl Bochum 3+ goals

21%

Werder Bremen 1+ goals

66%

Werder Bremen 2+ goals

30%

Werder Bremen 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)

65%

Werder Bremen (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vfl Bochum at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 5 matches

Werder Bremen away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.83 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vfl Bochum attack 1.34 + Werder Bremen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Werder Bremen attack 1.05 + Vfl Bochum defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vfl Bochum scores more

49%

level

25%

Werder Bremen scores more

26%

Vfl Bochum at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vfl Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

N. Stark

Werder Bremen · D

8.0

Match Events

3'

25'

25'

35'

42'

58'

Justin NjinmahPenalty cancelled

64'

P. Osterhage↳ K. Stöger

66'

Niklas Stark

66'

P. Hofmann← Gonçalo Paciência

72'

Matúš Bero

73'

R. Schmid← J. Njinmah

73'

D. Kownacki← R. Borré

75'

Anthony Losilla

80'

P. Förster← K. Stöger

80'

T. Oermann← C. Gamboa

80'

O. Deman← F. Agu

80'

N. Woltemade← L. Bittencourt

82'

Marvin Ducksch

85'

S. Lynen← J. Stage

88'

L. Daschner← C. Antwi-Adjei

90+5'

Bernardo

90+5'

Manuel Riemann

90+3'

N. Stark↳ S. Lynen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VflWerder

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots16

0.74Expected Goals (xG)0.79

3Corners4

14Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots16

4On Target3

8Off Target4

2Blocked9

8Inside Box11

6Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

376Total Passes391

273Accurate Passes290

73%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls14

6Yellow Cards5

4Offsides3