Werder Bremen 4–1 Vfl Bochum: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Werder BremenExpected goals in this matchVfl Bochum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.25

Werder Bremen

1.70

Vfl Bochum

1.25

Werder Bremen creates 36% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 38 away

1.24

creates per match

0.82

1.69

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Werder Bremen

1.24

Vfl Bochum

0.82

allows per match

Werder Bremen

1.69

Vfl Bochum

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Werder Bremen+0.00on par

Vfl Bochum+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werder Bremen ↓

Vfl Bochum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Werder Bremen or draw

72%

Werder Bremen or Vfl Bochum

76%

Draw or Vfl Bochum

52%

Winning margin

Werder Bremen wins by 2+

25%

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Werder Bremen 1+ goals

82%

Werder Bremen 2+ goals

51%

Werder Bremen 3+ goals

24%

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals

71%

Vfl Bochum 2+ goals

36%

Vfl Bochum 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Werder Bremen (draw refunded)

63%

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werder Bremen at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.69 · 99 matches

Vfl Bochum away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.16 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werder Bremen attack 1.24 + Vfl Bochum defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.70

Vfl Bochum attack 0.82 + Werder Bremen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Werder Bremen scores more

48%

level

24%

Vfl Bochum scores more

28%

Werder Bremen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Werder Bremen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

K. Stöger

Vfl Bochum · M

9.3

Match Events

6'

35'

37'

46'

46'

M. Bero← P. Osterhage

66'

T. Asano← M. Broschinski

73'

D. Kownacki← N. Woltemade

73'

C. Groß← L. Bittencourt

77'

Gonçalo Paciência← A. Losilla

77'

C. Gamboa← T. Oermann

77'

C. Antwi-Adjei← M. Wittek

78'

A. Jung↳ M. Ducksch

80'

J. Stage↳ R. Schmid

85'

O. Deman← F. Agu

85'

C. Antwi-Adjei↳ K. Stöger

87'

R. Schmid↳ M. Ducksch

90'

I. Hansen-Aarøen← R. Schmid

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WerderVfl

Overview

46%Possession54%

26Total Shots27

3.02Expected Goals (xG)2.09

8Corners8

12Fouls12

Shots

26Total Shots27

13On Target7

9Off Target12

4Blocked8

19Inside Box21

7Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

358Total Passes423

273Accurate Passes332

76%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

6Saves9

0.86Goals Prevented0.86

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1