Werder Bremen 3–0 Vfl Bochum: Result & Stats

Werder Bremen

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Vfl Bochum

M. Ducksch 59'

N. Schmidt 43'

N. Füllkrug 29'

2/25/2023

Bundesliga · Round 22wohninvest WESERSTADION

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Werder Bremen48%

×Draw24%

Vfl Bochum28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Werder BremenExpected goals in this matchVfl Bochum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.25

Werder Bremen

1.70

Vfl Bochum

1.25

Werder Bremen creates 36% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 38 away

1.24

creates per match

0.82

1.69

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Werder Bremen

1.24

Vfl Bochum

0.82

allows per match

Werder Bremen

1.69

Vfl Bochum

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Werder Bremen+0.00on par

Vfl Bochum+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werder Bremen ↓

Vfl Bochum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Werder Bremen or draw

72%

Werder Bremen or Vfl Bochum

76%

Draw or Vfl Bochum

52%

Winning margin

Werder Bremen wins by 2+

25%

Vfl Bochum wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Werder Bremen 1+ goals

82%

Werder Bremen 2+ goals

51%

Werder Bremen 3+ goals

24%

Vfl Bochum 1+ goals

71%

Vfl Bochum 2+ goals

36%

Vfl Bochum 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Werder Bremen (draw refunded)

63%

Vfl Bochum (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werder Bremen at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.69 · 99 matches

Vfl Bochum away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.16 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werder Bremen attack 1.24 + Vfl Bochum defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.70

Vfl Bochum attack 0.82 + Werder Bremen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Werder Bremen scores more

48%

level

24%

Vfl Bochum scores more

28%

Werder Bremen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Werder Bremen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

A. Jung

Werder Bremen · M

8.0

Match Events

29'

43'

45+1'

45+1'

46'

P. Förster← V. Lampropoulos

47'

Amos Pieper

51'

Philipp Hofmann

59'

M. Ducksch

65'

M. Broschinski← T. Asano

65'

P. Osterhage← K. Stöger

77'

R. Schmid← N. Schmidt

80'

Anthony Jung

82'

E. Dinkçi← M. Ducksch

82'

I. Gruev← J. Stage

82'

S. Ganvoula← P. Hofmann

87'

J. Góralski← P. Kunde

90+1'

F. Chiarodia← A. Pieper

90+1'

M. Philipp← C. Groß

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WerderVfl

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots7

1.16Expected Goals (xG)0.47

2Corners0

16Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots7

6On Target1

4Off Target2

1Blocked4

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box1

Passing

59%Possession41%

510Total Passes350

394Accurate Passes234

77%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4

Bundesliga: Werder Bremen 3–0 Vfl Bochum

Werder Bremen beat Vfl Bochum 3-0 in Bundesliga on February 25, 2023.

Goals: N. Füllkrug (29'), N. Schmidt (43'), M. Ducksch (59').

Werder Bremen controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at wohninvest WESERSTADION in Bremen.

Werder Bremen vs Vfl Bochum — Bundesliga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bundesliga: Werder Bremen 3–0 Vfl Bochum