VfL Bochum 0–1 Werder Bremen: Result & Stats

VfL Bochum

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Werder Bremen

J. Stage 56'

12/7/2024

Bundesliga · Round 13Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

VfL Bochum42%

×Draw24%

Werder Bremen34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfL BochumExpected goals in this matchWerder Bremen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.42

VfL Bochum

1.60

Werder Bremen

1.42

VfL Bochum creates 13% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 105 away

1.41

creates per match

1.39

1.44

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

VfL Bochum

1.41

Werder Bremen

1.39

allows per match

VfL Bochum

1.44

Werder Bremen

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfL Bochum+0.00on par

Werder Bremen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfL Bochum ↓

Werder Bremen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

VfL Bochum or draw

66%

VfL Bochum or Werder Bremen

76%

Draw or Werder Bremen

58%

Winning margin

VfL Bochum wins by 2+

21%

Werder Bremen wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

VfL Bochum 1+ goals

80%

VfL Bochum 2+ goals

47%

VfL Bochum 3+ goals

22%

Werder Bremen 1+ goals

76%

Werder Bremen 2+ goals

41%

Werder Bremen 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

VfL Bochum (draw refunded)

55%

Werder Bremen (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfL Bochum at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 39 matches

Werder Bremen away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.79 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfL Bochum attack 1.41 + Werder Bremen defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.60

Werder Bremen attack 1.39 + VfL Bochum defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

VfL Bochum scores more

42%

level

24%

Werder Bremen scores more

34%

VfL Bochum at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "VfL Bochum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. Stage

Werder Bremen · M

7.6

Match Events

27'

29'

56'

57'

72'

M. Kwarteng← M. Wittek

72'

D. de Wit← K. Miyoshi

76'

M. Broschinski← P. Hofmann

76'

L. Bittencourt← S. Lynen

76'

M. Grüll← M. Ducksch

77'

M. Pannewig← I. Sissoko

86'

C. Gamboa← F. Passlack

90+1'

A. Pieper← R. Schmid

90+1'

O. Deman← D. Köhn

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VfLWerder

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots9

1.21Expected Goals (xG)0.82

9Corners5

12Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots9

2On Target1

7Off Target4

3Blocked4

5Inside Box7

7Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

446Total Passes439

347Accurate Passes338

78%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

0.48Goals Prevented0.48

Discipline

12Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0