Watford 0–1 Norwich: Result & Stats | Championship

Watford

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Norwich

J. Sargent 41'

2/1/2025

Championship · Round 30Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Watford37%

×Draw27%

Norwich36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.27

Watford

1.29

Norwich

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 37 away

1.30

creates per match

1.30

1.24

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Watford

1.30

Norwich

1.30

allows per match

Watford

1.24

Norwich

1.27

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Watford-0.10scores less

Norwich+0.05on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Watford or draw

64%

Watford or Norwich

73%

Draw or Norwich

63%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

16%

Norwich wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

72%

Watford 2+ goals

37%

Watford 3+ goals

14%

Norwich 1+ goals

72%

Norwich 2+ goals

36%

Norwich 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

51%

Norwich (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.24 · 50 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.30 + Norwich defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Norwich attack 1.30 + Watford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Watford scores more

37%

level

27%

Norwich scores more

36%

Watford at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. Pollock

Watford · D

7.6

Match Events

35'

40'

41'

69'

75'

M. Doumbia← T. Dele-Bashiru

75'

J. Stacey← J. Sørensen

77'

Ryan Andrews

83'

T. Ince← Y. Larouci

84'

B. Chrisene← J. Sargent

84'

B. Hills← L. Mahovo

89'

Moussa Sissoko

90'

F. Sierralta← J. Abankwah

90'

M. Adu-Poku← M. Sissoko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordNorwich

Overview

42%Possession58%

9Total Shots16

0.71Expected Goals (xG)2.57

3Corners6

14Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots16

1On Target5

4Off Target3

4Blocked8

5Inside Box11

4Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

386Total Passes529

317Accurate Passes476

82%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

0.21Goals Prevented0.21

Discipline

14Fouls8

3Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Championship: Watford 0–1 Norwich

Norwich beat Watford 1-0 in Championship on February 1, 2025.

Goals: J. Sargent (41').

Norwich controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Norwich — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Watford 0–1 Norwich