Norwich 4–2 Watford: Result & Stats | Championship

Norwich

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Watford

C. Fassnacht 82'

Gabriel Sara 77'

J. Sargent 28'

A. Barnes 20'

Y. Asprilla 71'

M. Rajović 42'

2/13/2024

Championship · Round 32Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Norwich43%

×Draw26%

Watford31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.19

Norwich

1.46

Watford

1.19

Norwich creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

1.54

creates per match

1.04

1.34

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Norwich

1.54

Watford

1.04

allows per match

Norwich

1.34

Watford

1.39

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Norwich+0.14scores more

Watford-0.02on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

69%

Norwich or Watford

74%

Draw or Watford

57%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

21%

Watford wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

77%

Norwich 2+ goals

43%

Norwich 3+ goals

18%

Watford 1+ goals

70%

Watford 2+ goals

33%

Watford 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

58%

Watford (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.34 · 34 matches

Watford away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.39 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.54 + Watford defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

Watford attack 1.04 + Norwich defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Norwich scores more

43%

level

26%

Watford scores more

31%

Norwich at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Barnes

Norwich · M

7.9

Match Events

17'

Ashley Barnes

20'

A. Barnes↳ O. Hernández

28'

30'

42'

45+1'

55'

C. Fassnacht← O. Hernández

56'

M. Núñez← J. Sargent

61'

E. Dennis← Matheus Martins

61'

Y. Asprilla← K. Sema

71'

Y. Asprilla↳ G. Chakvetadze

72'

E. Kayembe← G. Chakvetadze

77'

Gabriel Sara↳ A. Barnes

79'

Ryan Porteous

80'

S. van Hooijdonk← A. Barnes

80'

L. Gibbs← Borja Sainz

82'

C. Fassnacht↳ J. Stacey

83'

R. Andrews← T. Dele-Bashiru

83'

T. Ince← J. Livermore

88'

Liam Gibbs

90+4'

D. Batth← Gabriel Sara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichWatford

Overview

44%Possession56%

14Total Shots11

1.96Expected Goals (xG)1.49

4Corners4

13Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots11

6On Target3

6Off Target4

2Blocked4

9Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

420Total Passes528

352Accurate Passes461

84%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1