Watford 3–2 Norwich: Result & Stats | Championship

Watford

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Norwich

T. Ince 78'

L. Kjerrumgaard 61', 33'

O. Schwartau 45'

J. Sargent 11'

12/6/2025

Championship · Round 19Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Watford41%

×Draw27%

Norwich33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.19

Watford

1.36

Norwich

1.19

Watford creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.41

creates per match

1.46

0.91

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Watford

1.41

Norwich

1.46

allows per match

Watford

0.91

Norwich

1.31

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Watford+0.23scores more

Norwich+0.25scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Watford or draw

67%

Watford or Norwich

73%

Draw or Norwich

59%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

19%

Norwich wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

74%

Watford 2+ goals

39%

Watford 3+ goals

16%

Norwich 1+ goals

70%

Norwich 2+ goals

33%

Norwich 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

55%

Norwich (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.31 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.41 + Norwich defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Norwich attack 1.46 + Watford defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Watford scores more

41%

level

27%

Norwich scores more

33%

Watford at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Kjerrumgaard

Watford · F

8.9

Match Events

8'

Harry Darling

11'

J. Sargent↳ O. Schwartau

24'

Giorgi Chakvetadze

33'

L. Kjerrumgaard

38'

T. Ince← G. Chakvetadze

45'

O. Schwartau↳ E. Marcondes

46'

M. Alleyne← K. Keben

54'

Vladan Kovačević

54'

J. Medic← T. Springett

61'

L. Kjerrumgaard↳ J. Ngakia

62'

J. Wright← E. Marcondes

62'

J. Makama← A. Forson

74'

V. Semedo← L. Kjerrumgaard

78'

T. Ince↳ M. Bola

86'

H. Kyprianou← M. Doumbia

86'

M. Sissoko← O. Maamma

86'

M. Kvistgaarden← O. Schwartau

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordNorwich

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots15

1.28Expected Goals (xG)1.88

6Corners5

12Fouls5

Shots

13Total Shots15

6On Target4

3Off Target6

4Blocked5

8Inside Box8

5Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

521Total Passes442

421Accurate Passes359

81%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.61Goals Prevented-0.61

Discipline

12Fouls5

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3