Norwich 4–1 Watford: Result & Stats | Championship

Norwich

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Watford

B. Chrisene 89'

M. Núñez 54'

Borja Sainz 45+3'

C. Doyle 3'

R. Andrews 26'

9/21/2024

Championship · Round 6Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Norwich43%

×Draw26%

Watford31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.19

Norwich

1.45

Watford

1.19

Norwich creates 22% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 50 away

1.52

creates per match

1.03

1.34

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Norwich

1.52

Watford

1.03

allows per match

Norwich

1.34

Watford

1.38

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Norwich+0.09on par

Watford-0.03on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

69%

Norwich or Watford

74%

Draw or Watford

57%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

21%

Watford wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

77%

Norwich 2+ goals

42%

Norwich 3+ goals

18%

Watford 1+ goals

70%

Watford 2+ goals

33%

Watford 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

58%

Watford (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.34 · 33 matches

Watford away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.38 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.52 + Watford defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.45

Watford attack 1.03 + Norwich defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Norwich scores more

43%

level

26%

Watford scores more

31%

Norwich at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

C. Doyle

Norwich · D

8.7

Match Events

3'

C. Doyle↳ K. McLean

10'

R. Porteous← F. Sierralta

13'

J. Bond← D. Bachmann

26'

R. Andrews↳ K. Sema

36'

Daniel Jebbison

45+3'

Borja Sainz↳ K. McLean

54'

M. Núñez↳ C. Doyle

63'

A. Forson← O. Schwartau

68'

Y. Larouci← K. Sema

68'

V. Bayo← R. Vata

68'

K. Baah← D. Jebbison

74'

Kellen Fisher

78'

J. Stacey← K. Fisher

78'

O. Hernández← A. Crnac

85'

B. Chrisene← Borja Sainz

85'

K. Gordon← O. Hernández

89'

B. Chrisene↳ J. Stacey

90+1'

Ben Chrisene

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichWatford

Overview

55%Possession45%

19Total Shots11

2.72Expected Goals (xG)1.67

3Corners5

6Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots11

8On Target3

8Off Target6

3Blocked2

11Inside Box9

8Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

538Total Passes436

471Accurate Passes366

88%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

-0.10Goals Prevented-0.10

Discipline

6Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3

Championship: Norwich 4–1 Watford

Norwich beat Watford 4-1 in Championship on September 21, 2024.

Goals: C. Doyle (3'), R. Andrews (26'), Borja Sainz (45+3'), M. Núñez (54'), B. Chrisene (89').

Norwich controlled possession (55%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich, Norfolk.

Norwich vs Watford — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Norwich 4–1 Watford